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From NWS:

THE REAL "FUN" BEGINS ON MONDAY AS THE VERY STRONG FULL-LATITUDE
TROUGH SWINGS EWD TOWARD THE FCST AREA...AND BEGINS TO TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT. AS HGTS FALL...AND AN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT
UPPER HGT PATTERN REACHES THE CST...MID LVL DYNAMICS WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY. NOT ONLY WILL THE SYSTEM BE A DYNAMIC ONE...IT WILL BE
ONE WITH A SOLID SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION...TAPPING INTO A RICH MSTR
FIELD IN THE ERN PAC...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FCST TO
RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES JUST OFF THE CST OF SRN CA BY MON.

STRONG SLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC...WITH 55 TO 65 MPH SLY WINDS AT 850 MB
WILL PROVIDE VERY GOOD OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF THE RAIN ON S AND
SW FACING SLOPES. A POTENT SFC FRONT WILL ALSO SWEEP THRU THE AREA
AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES INTO THE W CST. THE 06Z RUNS HAVE SLOWED
THINGS DOWN A BIT...ESPECIALLY ACRS L.A. COUNTY...AS A STRONG SFC
WAVE DEVELOPS TO THE W OF PT CONCEPTION. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOST
INTENSE RAIN WILL AFFECT SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES
MON INTO MON NIGHT...AND VTU AND L.A. COUNTIES MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING INTO TUE MORNING. RAINFALL RATES COULD REACH ONE INCH PER
HOUR IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS...MAINLY ON AND BELOW S AND
SW FACING SLOPES DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM. EVEN THOUGH UPPER
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY COLD...THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SO DYNAMIC...THAT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS THAT FURTHER.

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY HAVE TO BE ISSUED FOR THE
BURN AREAS...AND POSSIBLY IN OTHER LOCATIONS AS WELL. RESIDENTS OF
SRN CA...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN AND NEAR RECENTLY BURNED AREA SHOULD
USE THIS WEEKEND TO TAKE STEPS TO PROTECT THEIR PROPERTY IN CASE THE
SYSTEM IS AS STRONG AND WET AS THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE.

VERY STRONG SE TO SLY WINDS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE ADVISORIES ACRS MUCH
OF THE AREA...AND WINDS COULD APCH OR EXCEED HIGH WIND WARNING LEVELS
IN THE MTNS...ACROSS MUCH OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES...AND EVEN IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE VLYS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE
WINDS ACRS THE ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS...WITH STORM FORCE WINDS A
POSSIBILITY ACRS THE NORTHERN AND OUTER WATER

RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ON THE
ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH 5 TO 10
INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE VERY
HIGH FOR THE BULK OF THIS STORM...PROBABLY ABOVE RESORT LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...RAIN WILL DECREASE ACRS SLO AND SBA COUNTIES
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...BUT IS STILL LIKELY ACRS L.A. COUNTY TUESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...JUST A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SHOWERS ACRS THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONT ACRS THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL VORTS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST MAY BE
ENOUGH TO BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO NRN SXNS OF THE FCST
AREA WED NIGHT THRU FRI...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SPREADING
INTO SRN SNXS THU NIGHT AND FRO MORNING. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH
LOWER SNOW LEVELS...BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WED THRU FRI LOOK TO BE QUITE
LIGHT.

&&
 

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sounds like my choice to head to cat this weekend was a good one, it was warm and flat. We need the rain bad, and I'm off the water so bring it on


(fishhawk) jim
 

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Wednesday MAY be the ONLY window this week, other than SAT/SUN.
Given the current forecast, if there's a window I'm all over it!

John.
 
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