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Update 10pm Sat

MODEL RUNS STILL POINT TO A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT...PEAKING MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT CONTINUING TO BE UNSETTLED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. IF
ANYTHING...00Z RUNS ARE A TOUCH FARTHER WEST WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING THROUGH BASE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY. IF THIS HOLDS
TRUE...THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ONLY BE PROLONGED...EHANCING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS.

ONLY REAL ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS EVENING
INCLUDE DELAYING THE LOWERING OF THE SNOW LEVEL UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND ADJUSTING TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE SNOW
LEVEL SHOULD FINALLY GET DOWN TO 5500 TO 6500 FEET...THEN CONTINUE
TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY TO NEAR 4000 FEET BY TUESDAY NIGHT. A WINTER
STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ABOVE 6000 FEET. HOWEVER...SNOW
WILL LIKELY ACCUMLATE AS LOW AS 4000 FEET TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL REALLY BE AROUND BY THIS TIME.

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

ALL ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON EARLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
AND THE NAM ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...EC...AND
EXPERIMENTAL WRF BRINGING A COLDER CUT OFF LOW FURTHER SOUTH THAN
THE NAM. BASED THIS FORECAST ON THE GFS SOLUTION AND SINCE NAM IS
NOT THAT FAR OFF FROM GFS SOLN ESP IN TIMING FEEL PRETTY CONFIDENT
WITH THIS FORECAST IN GENERAL (AS ALWAYS DETAILS THIS FAR OUT ARE
STILL FUZZY)

RIGHT NOW MDLS ARE FORECASTING ALL THE CORRECT THINGS (PRECIP H20
OVER AN INCH...SUB TROPICAL CONNECTION...GREAT JET DYNAMIC...GOOD
500MB PVA...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTH WINDS) FOR A MAJOR EVENT. BUT
ALL OF THESE THINGS MUST COME TOGETHER CORRECTLY OR THE EVENT COULD
FALL APART. STILL AT THIS TIME PEOPLE SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE
POTENTIAL OF A HEAVY RAIN EVENT. PRELIMINARY RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE
1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE CSTS/VLYS AND 2 TO 4 LOCAL 5 ON THE MTNS. WITH
THE SOUTH FLOW AND JET MAXIMUM RAINFALL RATES COULD HIT AN INCH AN
HOUR.

THE MAIN SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT THEN THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD AND WILL BRING SHOWERY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THURSDAY SEEMS LIKE A DECENT DAY WITH A LITTLE RIDGE BUILDING IN.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOW A RETURN TO CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A SMALL TROF
MOVING THROUGH. PUT A FEW POPS IN...ESP CENTRAL COAST...AND RAISED
CLOUDS A BIT.
Update from NWS:

THE LATEST NAM CROSS SECTIONS ARE SHOWING
STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...ON THE ORDER OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS NEAR
THE 850 MB LEVEL ACROSS SLO/SBA COUNTIES. AS A RESULT...THIS SYSTEM HAS ALL THE MAKINGS OF BEING A SIGNIFICANT EARLY SPRING STORM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS.

AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...WHICH WILL HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT...THIS APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR WATERSPOUT AND FUNNEL CLOUD ACTIVITY. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS EVENT IS STILL 72 HOURS AWAY...AND A CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW COULD CERTAINLY MAKE MAJOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE FORECAST.

PRELIMINARY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS...AND LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 5 INCHES ACROSS FAVORED SOUTH FACING SLOPES. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH AT THE BEGINNING OF THE STORM...GENERALLY ABOVE 7000 FEET THROUGH MONDAY. BUT SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 FEET ON MONDAY NIGHT...REMAINING NEAR 4000 FEET ON TUESDAY. IF THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH THIS STORM EVOLUTION...LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR SNOW PRODUCER AT THE SKI RESORT LEVELS...AND
WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATING ON INTERSTATE 5 NEAR THE GRAPEVINE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-FRI)...A COLD AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. A SLIGHTLY DRIER WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING THIS TIME...THERE WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
AND COOL CONDITIONS...WITH 10 TO 20 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&
 
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